TOP ECONOMIST SAYS TRUMP'S 'LIBERATION DAY' TARIFFS 90% CHANCE OF RECESION BY JUNE

WASHINGTON, April 29, 2025 - Leading economists are warning that President Trump's sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports, announced earlier this month, could push the United States into recession by summer.

Apollo Global Management's chief economist Torsten Slok has raised alarm bells with his latest economic forecast, dramatically raising the probability of what he calls a "Voluntary Trade Reset Recession" to 90%.

"If you were designing a policy specifically to engineer a recession by summer, announcing sweeping 'Liberation Day' tariffs in April would be a very effective way of doing that," Slok wrote in a comprehensive 40-page analysis circulated to clients last week.

Supply Chain Disruption Expected Within Weeks

Slok, who gained credibility by maintaining a bullish outlook in 2022 when many analysts incorrectly predicted recession, now warns that container ship traffic from China to the U.S. will "come to a stop" by mid-May due to the punitive tariffs.

"By the end of May, we expect trucking demand will have come to a halt," Slok writes, "with layoffs in both trucking and retail coming in late May or early June."

The economic consequences could be severe, with Slok predicting that even "well-run generational retailers" may be forced to file for bankruptcy.

Early Warning Signs Already Visible

Evidence suggesting an economic slowdown is already mounting:

• U.S. companies are revising down profit expectations
• New orders are declining
• Capital investment in equipment is falling
• Heavy truck sales in March hit their lowest level since the pandemic
• CEO confidence has plummeted to the lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis

Consumer sentiment is similarly deteriorating, with confidence hitting new lows alongside international tourism numbers. According to Slok's analysis, Americans are "very worried" about losing their jobs.

Consumer Expectations Turning Negative

Survey data indicates Americans now expect unemployment to exceed even pandemic levels. A record-high percentage of consumers expect economic conditions to worsen over the coming year.

"A trade war is a stagflation shock," Slok concludes. "So long as the trade war is being waged, stagflation seems highly likely."

The White House has defended the tariff policy as necessary to protect American manufacturing and reduce dependence on Chinese imports, but has not directly addressed concerns about potential recession.

Market analysts will be closely watching economic indicators in the coming weeks, particularly supply chain metrics and retail sales figures, for confirmation of Slok's pessimistic forecast.